Toll sees no housing jump before April

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The sagging U.S. housing market probably will not rebound before next April, when the presidential race narrows down and national confidence improves as a result, the head of luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday.

"I see no reason to expect a change in confidence until probably April '08, when the candidates will fairly well be settled for the presidential election and we'll start to listen to speeches about how we'll get better," Robert Toll, the company's chairman and chief executive, said at the Reuters Real Estate Summit.

Many home-building industry executives, including Toll, attribute the anemic housing market to low buyer confidence, despite a healthy economy, strong employment and relatively low mortgage rates, currently at about 6.7 percent.

"(My) personal view is that it will be a very quick and strong rebound" fueled by a release of pent-up demand for new homes, Toll said. "We're not into this recession in housing for a long period compared to the other downturns."

However, all bets are off if the U.S. economy retreats, he said.

Judging by typical U.S. home-buying patterns, home builders will have to wait about a month to get an indication of the direction of the market, he said.

Historically, one of the strongest home-buying seasons has been between the Super Bowl pro football championship, usually in early February, and Easter, although this year that strength failed to materialize.

Home buyers usually reemerge after the Independence Day holiday.

"The next serious indication you'll get of what the market looks like will come probably three weeks after July 4," Toll said. "I would look at the tea leaves then to see if there's any indication that the market is coming back."

Asked about his recent criticism of U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's view of the housing market, Toll said: "I didn't criticize. I suggested that he was wrong."