We say we want a population of 6.5 million, which I don’t think we can reach. Probably 5.5 million.

The figure of 6.5 million - used for planning purposes - has been doing the rounds for some time now, but Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew indicated yesterday that Singapore was unlikely to touch that population level.

Every country wants to grow, said Mr Lee, in the midst of dialogue sessions jointly organised by the Economic Development Board and The Straits Times. That includes Singapore. ‘We say we want a population of 6.5 million, which I don’t think we can reach. Probably 5.5 million.

‘But Hong Kong says it wants 10 million. Why? So it can grow. The world is already bursting at its seams, and you keep on growing. The more you need, the more the pressure to grow.’

After about an hour spent on discussing Singapore’s early history, the nation’s founding leaders, and the nature of leadership, Mr Lee took a question from an audience member - a teacher at the National Institute of Education - who asked what factors might keep Asia from entering its golden age and cast it back to the ‘dark ages’.

‘Nobody can predict what the world will be like in 15, let alone a hundred years, because the changes that have been set into motion are already changing the balance between what the planet can bear and what humans want,’ Mr Lee said.

Global warming will be a serious issue, and the question is whether ‘we have the wisdom and ability to prevent this degradation of the environment’, he said.

‘I have very serious reservations. I don’t see any government telling its people to consume less - less photographs, less travel, less food and more vegetables . . . that’s not the way the world is going.’

Mr Lee said Singapore is well-positioned for the next ten years, barring a major fall-out between China and the US over Taiwan, or over tariff or other protectionist issues, which might curb trade between the two countries.

Singapore’s imports and exports are three-and -a-half times that of the gross domestic product - second only to Hong Kong - so a disruption of trade would severely impact the economy, said Mr Lee.

Mr Lee also took a hypothetical question of whether, if he was a successful lawyer in his 30s here today, would he give up that career to serve in politics.

It depends on my life before 30, he said. If I was brought up poor and achieved an education thanks to a government scholarship, I would probably feel a ‘moral obligation’ to keep the system going, said Mr Lee. But the answer would be different if he came from a well-off family. ‘I’d hesitate. What for? If someone else can do it, let him do it.’

It is a problem the current leadership faces in attracting talent, said Mr Lee, who shared that one of his grandsons (not the current prime minister’s son), though a top student, chose not to take up a scholarship as he did not want to be tied by a six-year bond.

And not everyone was a born leader, said Mr Lee, who recounted what he had learnt about sheepdogs in Australia. A shepherd had told him that it was critical to see if the dog was up to the job. ‘If the dog does not have a pair of eyes that can look at a sheep and scare the sheep into doing this, don’t try.’

Source : Business Times - 7 Aug 2007